Ten things to look for in Jets-Patriots showdown
By Gary Horton
Scouts Inc.
Updated: November 13, 2008
Having broken down film of the New York Jets and the New England Patriots, Scouts Inc. runs down what to pay attention to during their matchup Thursday night at Gillette Stadium, including tremendous play from the nose tackles, the effect of losing Adalius Thomas and the return of Ty Law.
• If you like good play in the trenches, this is your game. This matchup features two of the best nose tackles in the NFL, Kris Jenkins (Jets) and Vince Wilfork (Patriots). They anchor the middle of their 3-4 defenses and most of the time occupy at least two blockers. Not only do they stuff the run, but they also keep their linebackers clean and enable them to fly to the ball and make the most of tackles. You cannot run the 3-4 defense successfully without a dominant nose tackle, and each of these teams has a good one.
• Patriots QB Matt Cassel has expanded the playbook a little more each week as his coaches gain confidence in him. After weeks of low-risk bubble screens, quick slants and a very short passing game designed to get yards after the catch, Cassel is starting to take some deep shots to loosen up the defense. He throws a very nice deep ball with good touch and accuracy. He also has learned to look off safeties and keep them away from the perimeter, which gives him good one-on-one matchups, but the Jets have excellent corners and their safeties are not easily fooled. This means Cassel probably will resort back to the short passing attack to avoid the Jets' good coverage secondary and get the ball out before the pressure gets to him.
• The Jets are second in the NFL with 31 sacks, and they bring pressure from every direction. Meanwhile, the Patriots have struggled in pass protection. The Jets also have four defensive touchdowns and lead the league with 14 forced fumbles. Cassel is much more mature and takes care of the ball better now than he did in Week 2 when these teams played each other, but the Jets also have more film on the first-year starter.
• As much exposure as Patriots rookie RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis is getting from his 105 yards rushing versus Buffalo this past Sunday, there still are concerns about whether he can be an every-down back. You get the feeling the coaches would be much more comfortable putting him in a rotation. Green-Ellis runs hard, but he is upright. That leaves a lot of body surface to hit, and at this early stage of his career, he doesn't have a great feel of where the hits are coming from. Plus, he doesn't really understand defensive angles, and that leads to some big collisions.
• The season-ending injury to Patriots ROLB Adalius Thomas is a significant blow to the defense. Thomas was effective off the edge with five of New England's 16 sacks and had a lot of hits and hurries on opposing quarterbacks. Veteran LOLB Mike Vrabel is having a subpar season, and Thomas was the only real pass-rushing threat on the defense. Without Thomas, the Patriots likely will bring more blitzes to create pressure, but that could expose a vulnerable secondary if the pressure doesn't get there. Thomas' versatility will be sorely missed because he was the only defensive player who played in every scheme and never came off the field, which is unusual for a Bill Belichick defensive player.
• When New England is on offense in this game, blitz pickup will be a key factor. The Jets will bring pressure from all directions -- inside, off the edges and even from the secondary with FS Kerry Rhodes. The Patriots can neutralize the blitz in two ways: Cassel can use three- and five-step drops and use RB Kevin Faulk in blitz pickup because he has great vision and instincts in that area. Faulk also is adept at releasing as an outlet receiver on short or screen passes, so it might be tough for the Jets to get to Cassel.
• Look for QB Brett Favre and the Jets' offense to establish the run game early with RBs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. They face a Patriots run defense that has not been as strong as we are used to. If the Jets can establish the run, Favre can use an effective play-action package designed to lure the ILBs up inside and open up a secondary that is vulnerable to the deep ball. Favre has too many vertical weapons not to take some deep shots.
• Without Thomas, look for the Pats to utilize more 4-3 fronts and put the pressure on their defensive ends to apply pressure. They also will drop their OLBs into coverage to help a vulnerable secondary in a bend-but-don't-break scheme. However, if that four-man rush can't get to Favre, Belichick could be forced to gamble with some blitzes and put his DBs on an island.
• If the Jets' newly signed CB, Ty Law, plays a lot versus the Patriots, look for him to line up versus slot receiver Wes Welker or No. 3 WR Jabar Gaffney. WR Randy Moss will be covered by CB Darrelle Revis, who still will need help over the top if the Pats go deep. And if Law is on Welker, he will need bracket help because there is no way he can stay with the quicker Welker. That will leave Gaffney with a lot of one-on-one matchups, and he might be single-covered by Law on a few snaps; that is when Cassel must audible and go deep. Gaffney could be the X factor in this game.
• The Patriots need to improve their red zone offense versus the Jets. They have scored 16 red zone touchdowns in 34 possessions, so they are getting into scoring range but they are not getting the results they need (only six teams have more red zone possessions than the Pats). Moss is a great target on fade routes, and Welker is tremendous finding space underneath, so look for Belichick to become very creative and maybe even unorthodox in his red zone schemes to create big plays.
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