First-round playoff games feature some interesting matchups
By Gil Brandt | NFL.com
Here's a look at some key matchups to follow in this weekend's games, in the order in which they will be played:
Atlanta RB Michael Turner vs. Arizona LB Karlos Dansby
There's not much history here, as these teams have played 24 times overall, and only six times in the last 10 years. The quarterback matchup is fascinating -- you've got an 11-year veteran who was undrafted in Warner facing a rookie in Atlanta's Matt Ryan who was the third overall pick in this year's draft. The game also features three of the four NFC Pro Bowl receivers: Roddy White of the Falcons and Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The Falcons and Cardinals are both dome teams, but even though Atlanta is used to the crowd noise, it still could affect the Falcons on offense.
This is a game in which Kurt Warner and the Cardinals will be looking to establish the passing game, while Atlanta will want to run the ball with Turner and mix in passes to loosen up the defense. Arizona has passed 290 more times than it's run the ball this season. Atlanta has run 126 times more than it has passed.
Turner is in his first year with the Falcons after four years as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego. While with the Chargers, he never carried ball more than 80 times in a season and had just 228 carries in four years, but he averaged 5.5 yards per carry. Turner is a back with power and speed, and the ability to make people miss. He ran a 4.48 at the combine at 241 pounds, and he has good hands.
Dansby plays weak inside linebacker in Arizona's 3-4 defense. It's the same position that Tedy Bruschi plays for New England. Dansby plays on all downs and has a nose for the ball. He leads the team with 119 tackles, to go along with four sacks and two interceptions. He has the strength to play the run and speed to cover backs in space, which means he'll most likely also be called on handle Jerious Norwood coming out of the backfield.
Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning vs. San Diego CB Antonio Cromartie
These teams have met three times in the last two seasons -- once each in the regular season and in the 2007 postseason. San Diego has won two of the three games, and all have been tight. The margin of victory has been two, three and four points. Overall, San Diego has outscored the Colts in the three games by a combined score of 71-68.
San Diego has gone from running the ball 52 percent of time in 2007 to passing 53 percent of the time in 2008. Indianapolis, meanwhile, has passed 61 percent of the time this season, and the Colts rank 31st in rushing offense. They rank 24th vs. the run on defense.
The Colts are sixth in pass defense, and they take on Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, who threw 34 TD passes this season and led the NFL with a 105.5 rating. (I still can't believe he didn't make the Pro Bowl.)
Manning and the Colts have won nine consecutive games, while Rivers and the Chargers have won four in a row. I think this is a game in which both quarterbacks will come out firing. San Diego is a better running team and may try to shorten the game by running more if LaDainian Tomlinson is healthy.
Manning is amazingly accurate with the football. He can put it in the right spot more than 90 percent of the time. The Chargers must force him to move right and left -- teams can get inside pressure on him to force him to release the ball early, but that won't hurt his accuracy. Make him move laterally and that could hurt his accuracy. Manning has had better than a 70 percent completion rate in eight of the last nine games. Reggie Wayne, who most of the time lines up on the left, is his favorite target.
Cromartie lines up on right corner most of the time, so he'll be covering Wayne all day. Cromartie has not played well this year after leading the NFL with 10 interceptions in '07 and making the Pro Bowl. If you run a deep ball on Cromartie, he'll show speed, long arms and the ability to cut off the receiver. His height and jumping ability make it hard to throw over him. He will jump the double move, however, and a less-than-stellar first step means he can give up short passes when a receiver stops short.
The Colts are the first team in NFL history with six consecutive seasons of 12 or more wins. Tony Dungy is the first head coach with 10 consecutive playoff appearances.
The Colts allowed just six TD passes all season -- the fewest ever in a 16-game schedule. Still, look for this to be a high-scoring game.
Baltimore S Ed Reed vs. Miami QB Chad Pennington
This will be a very physical game, and neither team will be very fancy. Both play for field position and turnovers. In 2007, the Ravens and Dolphins won six games between them. Both have first-year head coaches and new quarterbacks. This will be a chess match between four very good coordinators.
The Dolphins need to figure out Baltimore's blitz packages. The Ravens need to stop Miami's gadget plays. The Ravens want to run and play field position. The Dolphins will rely on Pennington. He threw just seven interceptions in '08, second fewest in the NFL. The Ravens led the league in interceptions with 26.
Reed is a playmaker with a great understanding of what the Ravens are trying to do on defense. He has great instincts and his 43 career interceptions since coming into the NFL in 2002 are the most by any player in that time. He also returns kicks, blocks kicks, and forces fumbles -- and he has the running skills to make big returns any time he touches the ball, as he did two weeks ago in the big win over Dallas. He is having an MVP-type season.
Pennington had a career-high 3,653 passing yards in '08, to go along with 19 TD passes and a 97.4 rating, second best in the NFL behind Rivers. He is smart and very seldom makes bad plays. He has outstanding accuracy. Pennington is a rhythm and timing passer with average arm strength. He's not flashy, but he's the all-time leader in passer rating.
In the first meeting, the Ravens blitzed every time Miami came out in the 'Wildcat' formation. Expect a low-scoring game. I don't think either team gets to 20 points -- but if they do, that should be enough to win.
Philadelphia OT William Thomas vs. Minnesota DE Jared Allen
These two franchises, both of which overcame losing records after five games this season to make the playoffs, have been in a combined 58 postseason games -- 34 for the Eagles, 24 for the Vikings. They've met only twice in the playoffs, and the Eagles won both times.
3rd-down conversion pct.: 41 39
Both teams play good defense. The Eagles allow 274 yards per game, the Vikings 292. The Eagles are a passing team -- Donovan McNabb actually set a new team record this season with 3,915 passing yards. The Vikings want to run. Adrian Peterson led the NFL with 1,760 yards, and he is only the fourth player in history to lead his conference in rushing in each of his first two NFL seasons. Vikings coach Brad Childress worked seven years under Eagles coach Andy Reid, four in which he was the offensive coordinator.
Thomas is coming off a game in which he held NFL sacks leader DeMarcus Ware without a sack. He has good bulk, long arms, and long legs. He is a hand-to-hand combat player who is very good against speed rushers. He has started 166 games in 11 years. One thing to consider in this meeting: Crowd noise in the dome will work against Thomas, as it does for all visiting offensive tackles in loud stadiums.
Allen was traded to Minnesota prior to the 2008 draft, and he has not disappointed. He's had 14.5 sacks this season and has 51.5 sacks since 2005 -- the most in NFL in that time. Allen has quickness off the ball, is very active, and competes hard on every play. He has the skill to come off blocks, and his quickness allows him to get into the game and make plays. If he is not controlled, he will destroy a team's game plan. He's an excellent tackler who will bring the QB down.
Two names to be aware of: Eagles rookie receiver DeSean Jackson, who led the Eagles in receptions and is dangerous returning kicks, and Vikings tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, who has really played well for Minnesota and who creates matchup problems for the defense.
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